WE ARE NEMO: LET’S REFINE OUR ACT

Godwin B. Sutherland Sr., P.Eng, Q.S

The very location of our jewel Belize means that we will continue to be subjected to a number of natural hazards, one of which is hurricanes.  Every year we are reminded that between the months of June and November we are most vulnerable to being hit by hurricanes.  Historic data  exist of hurricanes hitting the settlement as early as September 2, 1787 with some major hurricanes occurring on June 6, 1813, September 10, 1931, October 4, 1945, September 27, 1955 was  Janet, October 31, 1961 was Hattie, October 1 2000 was Keith and then there was Richard October 24, 2010. These realities demand that we keep refining our act to make Belizeans all across this country safer.

I have always advanced the argument that the significance of our vulnerability to hazards is such that we cannot adhere to a model for development that does not have as its core hazard risk reduction and management. To my mind it seems reckless indeed to plan on the basis of controlled development modules, when all our systems and institutions are subject to nature's unpredictability. This uncertainty in weather patterns as reported by a significant cross section of the world's scientific community is expected to be exacerbated due to the effects of climate change.  The implications of climate change of course do not auger well for small economies such as Belize already struggling with major social ills and where tourism is a significant industry.

Our planning and mitigation efforts need to be second to none, if we are going to lift our people out of this seemingly endless chasm of hopelessness, of poverty.  This requires the selection of leaders who are knowledgeable of and committed to hazard risk management and reduction. Equally important is that periodic independent evaluation of NEMO's preparedness should be encouraged as a positive management tool to enhance NEMO's operations.

The Government of Belize with the support of the Caribbean Development Bank and the Inter American Development Bank executed and implemented the Hurricane Rehabilitation and Disaster Preparedness Project (HRDPP) during the period 2000 to 2005. This HRDPP positioned our country to better respond to disasters. Under the HRDPP the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Legislation was developed and passed. The institutional strengthening of NEMO together with public education and awareness was envisioned; the NEMO Headquarters building was constructed and commissioned. Disaster Plans were developed along with standard operating procedures for all of NEMO's operations together with intense training at all levels. Regional and local shelters were constructed anew or retrofitted all across this country as was the ability of NEMO to communicate during a disaster. This saw the installation of communication towers built at the NEMO Headquarters and in the Mountain Pine Ridge; accompanied by layers upon layers of telecommunication and computer hardware and software systems being installed. Significant works were done to improve the drainage of Belize City as was software developed to deal with reporting on shelters performance, maintenance requirement and other tools that could aid in rapid damage assessment.

Since the HRDPP, considerable time has passed and the necessary independent evaluation of all areas of NEMO's operations must be called for. This evaluation would provide a scientific means of capturing the feedback from Belizeans and organizations especially those who have been affected by disasters and are involved in disaster recovery efforts during the period 2005 to 2010.

There was a very important hazard analysis done under the HRDPP by the consulting firm of Smith Warner International.  In 2001 the firm was contracted to provide a hazard analysis of the safeness of the location of IADB funded regional shelters and to determine the best location for the regional shelters based on some predetermined criterion. The deliverable for this consultancy was the production of a final report that provides for greater understanding and quantification of the various hazard phenomena and provided sound recommendations. Based on the methodology used a 90% accuracy was attached to the results of this study. The consultants used a number of computer modules and extended historic data of hurricanes to obtain trends including taking into account the effect of our barrier reef and atolls to determine outcomes.

We can all recall the effects of tropical storm Arthur in June 2008 and later that same year tropical depression 16 and this experience clearly highlighted the importance to know how our rivers and waterways are likely to behave during a storm event. The consultants were also tasked with taking on board hydraulic/hydrologic computation and modeling.

My purpose for making reference to this Report is that it speaks to the inherent dangers associated with hurricane activities in Belize, which are storm surge, destructive waves, high winds and flooding. Smith Warner International presented computed storm surge values as summarized in table 1 for categories 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes. These predictions indicate that in a category 5 hurricane, the entire downtown core of Belize City would be inundated, as would the adjacent approaches to the city.  In a Category 4 event, widespread flooding would also be anticipated, while in a category 3 hurricane, only a few locations would be expected to remain dry in Belize City and environs. These data ought to be readily available to Belizeans as it is important to inform the decision taken in the event of a threat. Storm surge as a consequence of hurricane activity needs to be better understood by every Belizean as it could potentially affect people in coastal areas including Belize City.  The exceptions being the Orange Walk, Cayo and inland Stann Creek District which haves other activities such as flooding of rivers.

Table1: Summary of Storm Surge Predictions – Belize City

Hurricane Category	Storm Surge (meters)	Storm Surge (feet)
Category 3 Hurricane	4.1	13.4
Category 4 Hurricane	5.5	18
Category 5 Hurricane	7.4	24.3

Figure 1 shows The Bata Building a known landmark in Belize City and the line marks the reported water level reached during hurricane Hattie in 1961. It can be readily seen that this water level would cover all ground floors of a typical bungalow building and rise to a height of 5 feet on the second floor of two storey buildings. Bearing in mind that an attic window to access the roofs of buildings has virtually been eliminated from our designs; the scenario for drowning may be set.  Early alerts and proper evacuation plans together with public awareness and continued leadership from NEMO are to reduce this risk.

Figure 1: Bata Building corner Albert and King Street

Table 2 shows storm surge predictions for Corozal, Dangriga and Punta Gorda. The Report noted that due to the outer barrier reef with a shallow inner lagoon area, storm surge impacts are minimized at the cayes but maximized on the mainland shoreline.  This is indeed important and should foster a drive to provide protection to our shoreline. The vulnerability was very visible in south side Belize City and other locations where the effects of the absence of a sea wall was readily evident and needs to be addressed with urgency.

Table 2: Storm Surge Predictions

Town	Category 3 Hurricane	Category 4 Hurricane	Category 5 Hurricane
Corozal	5.5m  (18.04 ft)	7.3m  (23.95 ft)	10.0m   (32.81 ft)
Dangriga	4.0m  (13.12 ft)	5.4m  (17.72 ft)	7.3m    (23.95 ft)
Punta Gorda	3.5m  (11.48 ft)	5.1m   (16.73 ft)	7.2m   (23.62 ft)

It is my humble opinion that the dangers of storm surge needs to be more fully explain to Belizean  and the devised alert system promoted vigorously. The consequences associated with NEMO not adequately informing the Belizean pubic on these matters are unimaginable. There can also be no doubt that our transportation system must be made readied to effectively evacuate our people.  Equally important is for NEMO not to adopt a defensive posture but embrace the need to subject itself to periodic evaluation.  There are always lessons to be learnt as we struggle to refine our preparedness efforts in the face of natural hazards.

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Source: The Belize Times